主题：Wage stagnation and structure transformation（工资停滞与结构转型）

主讲人：台湾“中央研究院”人文社会科学研究中心 陈为政助理研究员

主持人：发展研究院 李丁副教授

时间：2020年1月16日（星期四）上午10:30-12:00

地点：西南财经大学柳林校区 格致楼1102会议室

主办单位：发展研究院 经济学院 科研处

主讲人简介：

陈为政，台湾“中央研究院”人文社会科学研究中心助理研究员。专长领域为宏观经济理论、发展经济学、教育经济学等。已发表重要著作于Games and Economic Behavior、Economics Letters等重要学术期刊。

主要内容：

In Taiwan, average wages in manufacturing and service sector have been stagnant since 2002. Most of negative labor demand-side shocks occurred in the manufacturing sector, while wage stagnation in the service sector is more severe than in the manufacturing. In order to explain this phenomenon, the research characterizes heterogeneous labor’s occupation choices by the Roy model and general equilibrium model. The study particularly classifies labor into four types by their gender and education level to describe their occupation choice problems by their comparative advantages. Finally, the study uses the calibrated model to analyze the impacts of three exogenous shocks on equilibrium: manufacturers’ shifts, deterioration in terms of trade, and increase in the number of highly educated workers. The net effect of three exogenous shocks indicates that labor mainly move to the service sector, resulting in that average wages in the service sector drop more than in the manufacturing. Therefore, the model in this paper provides a possible explanation for that wages in the service sector are more stagnant, which is rarely explained by empirical studies.

本文结合Roy模型与一般均衡模型，解释自2002年起，台湾制造业面临劳动需求面的不利冲击影响，但却是服务业平均实际薪酬严重停滞的现象。本文的校准模型通过模拟各种劳动力可能的生产力分配状况，分析劳工的职业选择和薪资分配，并分析三种外生冲击的影响：制造业厂商外移、贸易条件恶化以及受过高等教育劳工增加对均衡的影响。三个因素的净效果显示在外生冲击下劳动力会主要向服务业转移，并造成服务业平均薪资的大幅下降。本文的贡献在于，模型的模拟结果能够解释实证文献中对于服务业薪资严重停滞原因不能解释的部分。